The current forecast date is 10 October, showing data until 10 October.
The following Trusts/UTLAs make forecasts of hospital admissions using timeseries forecasts of COVID-19 cases (rather than EpiNow2, by default): Yeovil District Hospital NHS Foundation Trust (UTLA: Somerset), Royal United Hospitals Bath NHS Foundation Trust (UTLA: Bath and North East Somerset), Somerset NHS Foundation Trust (UTLA: Somerset), Great Western Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust (UTLA: Swindon)
The main forecasting model is an unweighted ensemble of three individual models:
covid19.nhs.data)All models are trained on the last 6 weeks of data (from 29 August) and forecasts are made for the following 14 days.
Note: for clarity, we only show forecasts for Trusts which have admitted five or more patients in the last 7 days.
We derive forecasts of national and regional hospital admissions from the Trust-level admissions. For each of the individual models, the forecast samples are summed to get national/regional forecasts, then summarised into quantile forecasts, and then the ensemble forecast created. These are compared below to forecasts made using EpiNow2.